By doing surveillance we know what is circulating, we know what is out there, and which are most serious contenders,

In terms of human health, the predominant risk is poultry because that is where there is significant exposure to the human population. The direct risk of migrating birds (infecting) humans is negligible -- it's like being knocked down by a bus.

Once it amplifies in poultry then you have ample opportunity for continued interaction with human populations. The maintenance and perpetuation of this virus is really through poultry.

You really have to look at trends -- the daily figure or two days or three days doesn't really mean anything.

A large proportion of the global population is in this region, and beyond that there is a diversity of animals that are thought to be important in the generation of these pandemic viruses.

The reasons for this unusual severity of human disease have remained unclear.

We must make sure our preparedness plans are well organized and ready and we must also get a vaccine ready and make sure it can be mass produced in numbers that are required.

Just the introduction per se (of the virus from wild birds to poultry) is not a major risk but if it becomes endemic, that is the problem,

I don't think it will go away in the summer months, it will continue to be in poultry.

One can narrow potential culprits and be prepared with vaccines.